MIDDLE EAST

Mar 26 2020

From Kolomoisky to avaludina. Purely Ukrainian Exodus. Rostislav Ishchenko

Ten years, with the first orange square, I spoke and wrote that Ukraine was at full speed and flies into a civil war. What a cold civil war has been going on, and it can become hot at any time for any, even the most insignificant reasonIf government and society want to escape the hot phase of the civil war, it is necessary to change the main vector of internal policy, to abandon the policy of Ukrainization and proceed to the creation of a civil society and political nation on the basis of national compromise.

“Where is your civil war?” — asked me the then citizens. “Don’t scare us!” — they said. “In Ukraine there is peace, harmony and national unity,” claimed policy.

As a result, in a hot civil war they flew at ridiculous reason — Yanukovych postponed (just postponed) the signing of the Association agreement with the EU, the meaning of which the vast majority of Ukrainian citizens do not understand and whose contents were unknown to them. But even having flown in the civil war, the Ukrainian authorities continue her “not to notice”, calling the “Russian aggression”.

Bad is not what they claim Russia. Who only Russia claims does not show. Russia will survive. Bad in this case that by refusing to face reality, calling the civil conflict international, the Ukrainian authorities refuse to see the cause of this conflict. But without addressing the causes cannot be eliminated and consequences. That is, the government of Ukraine, refusing to eliminate the causes of the civil war, and not having the strength to win it, leading the country to an inevitable collapse.

Stage of the process I described back in 2014. The establishment after the coup, the Nazi-oligarchic Republic (just be oligarchic) was not due to any special strength of the Ukrainian Nazis. Get rid of Yanukovych oligarchs could do with the help of the then not yet old army and police to disperse relatively quickly Nazi troops. Tolerance of the Nazis in power was associated with the reduction of the national resource. The oligarchy could no longer exercise his rule through democratic procedures. Its future dominance could provide only overt violence transgressing the law.

To become the perpetrators of such violence (death squads in the service of the oligarchy) could only Nazi structure. No matter that they were relatively few, the main thing that has allowed them to arm themselves and become above the law, and the Minister of internal Affairs Arsen Avakov has gradually turned into an informal leader of all Nazis of Ukraine. Thus was overcome the last obstacle in the way of the Nazis to power — fragmentation. Avakov joined the top Nazis, who failed to unite the bottom.

The role of controlled Avakov Nazis were dominant from the first days of the Nazi-oligarchic Republic. He just wisely tried not to stick out, highlighting for use in the international arena, the “human face” of the regime. But this is Nazi structure caused the first clashes in the Donbass, forcing in the end to fight the army (after which she quickly ratifitsirovala and no longer represent a danger to the regime). Avakov that the Nazis suppressed the Russian spring in Odessa. It is they who have launched terror across the country, slaying, squeezing out abroad or forcing them to silence political opponents of the regime. Without the support of the Nazi death squads even turned into political police, the SBU would be unable to deal effectively with the opposition. State structures, even breaking the law, forced him to check up and follow a certain procedure. This limits their tools and possibilities of the struggle with the opposition. Nazi gangs are not limited by anything except your own mood. When attacking, they often do not know whether the limited case of simple and/or moral humiliation of the victim, whether the victim is maimed or murdered. The decision comes in the process.

The role of the Nazis in the system is constantly growing. Avakov did not obey Poroshenko already in 2015, and the President was not able to dismiss the Minister. In the end, not the voters, and Avakov determined the winner in the presidential election of 2019. If he hadn’t blocked the implementation poroshenkovskogo plan of falsification, Peter quietly made his “re-election”. To confront him would theoretically Tymoshenko, but not Zelensky.

Further resource depletion leads to a decrease in the role of oligarchs in Nazi-oligarchic tandem, her desire to zero. Nazi-oligarchic Republic should become openly Nazi dictatorship. This is the last stage before the collapse of the country. She can even accompany the decay. As the loss mechanisms are first political and then economic and financial domination direct, illegal violence is no longer dominant, and the only way of ruling.

Many people wonder how, say, a simple epidemic of some virus could in such a short time to cause such a comprehensive crisis. There were also epidemics before. And nothing like the current collapse has not happened.

The fact that the virus did not cause the crisis. The epidemic has only served as a catalyst for a long time marching processes. The systemic crisis has evolved for several decades, gradually destroying from within the system of international relations and world economy. From the fact that the policy of the leading world powers did not recognize the existence of the crisis, it did not disappear (as it did not disappear from the non-recognition of the Ukrainian civil war), worse only global political and economic system, because, not recognizing the existence of the crisis, did not struggle and its causes. As a result, when hit by the epidemic, the world political and economic system was so weakened, his immune system is so worn out that it started falling apart before our eyes.

Similarly, the epidemic has catalyzed and the processes taking place in Ukraine. So far, Kiev has retained at least a semblance of statehood solely through external funding. But in a crisis when not enough money even to help Italy, and the Federal reserve injected trillions unable to stop the fall of stock indices, not enough money even to those who print them. It is highly doubtful that in these circumstances, the Kiev government will be able to persuade the IMF to continue and expand the program of crediting of Ukraine. Theoretically, the Fund can give a little money under the program of sale of land to foreign investors. But not the fact, for in the conditions of increasing crisis in the Ukrainian land as the asset depreciates in the same way as other depreciating assets.

But even if the Fund get enough money for Ukraine some money, the money is instantly meaningless and will burn in the furnace of the crisis. The Ukrainian economy (or rather what remained of it) is stopped, virtually all sources of replenishment of the budget have been exhausted. To raise money through loans a free financial market were much too expensive, and now the Ukrainian paper in there just not listed. If they take some very risky speculators, under extremely high interest rate and for a minimum period. At the moment there is a massive flight of speculative capital from Ukrainian market.

That is, the existing problems will grow like a snowball. Moreover, simultaneously with the exhaustion of the capacity of public authorities to maintain the illusion of stability and controllability of the processes of the population loses its Autonomous sources of survival. Millions of workers are losing their jobs in the crisis-ridden and panic in case of an epidemic in Europe. Instead of money, which they transferred to their families, back into the country themselves, swelling the ranks of the unemployed.

Migrant workers — an extremely explosive element. These people are active, accustomed not to rely on the state having to experience self-determination of their own destiny and overcome the significant challenges associated with working abroad. This is likely a powerful base of social protests which can easily turn into riots.

Resource for reducing tension, have no power. She can only rely on violent suppression. Judging by the actions of the Ukrainian government, despite taking over the upper echelon panic in the face of the epidemic, it intends to rely for the preservation of the last remaining resources and power.

Accordingly, a struggle for control. Zelensky want to declare a state of emergency. But can not assemble the Parliament for the approval of the relevant decree. In addition, we must understand that even in the case of conducting emergency power resource is unlikely to be under the control Zelensky. Just obviously part of the oligarchy is trying to counter awkowska MIA and his Nazi troops army. But the army is subordinate to the generals. She looks old and has no plans to fight against socio-friends MIA. She “earns” on smuggling (including weapons) in the area of environmental protection, on military orders, for sale of the remnants of the former luxury with military warehouses. Her commercial interests intersect with the interests of Avakov.

In turn Avakov, under the guise of quarantine measures de-facto imposed a state of emergency under its own control. He blocked the communication between and within regions, and even within the capital. Police forces and the national guard with the participation of Nazi troops control almost the entire life of the population. With the tightening of quarantine measures increase the possibility of their intervention. Today Avakov depends on whose business and on what terms will work. His power is not based on financial capital and control of major industrial assets (as in the classic Ukrainian oligarchs), and the force of the interior Ministry and Nazi militants.

The power in the country in fact passed into the hands of the Nazis. The dictatorship Avakov not legally formalized, but no less real. That’s only on the bayonets of yet nobody has been able to sit for a long time. And the other resource from the Ukrainian authorities do not and never will be.

Rostislav Ishchenko

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