Ukraine is waiting for a propitious occasion for the defaulting | half a million Ukrainians may lose their jobs because of the coronavirus

Ukraine is waiting for a propitious occasion for the defaulting | half a million Ukrainians may lose their jobs because of the coronavirus

The Ukrainian economy will not sustain a quarantine for more than two weeks. The threat of default for Ukraine is becoming more obvious.As reported by Telegram-channel “Legitimate”, citing a source from the Office of the President, “now OP and government are preparing for a default, calculating options and algorithms”, because the Ukrainian economy will not sustain a quarantine for more than two weeks.

“Everything will be more “will kill the economy completely.” Especially kill small and medium businesses, and that means food riots.

Also this year, we can no longer pay “the debt to the IMF and the creditors.” Simply to take money from. Everything came to a standstill. The paralysis of all economic processes”, — stated in the message Telegram channel.

“OP and the government took a wait-and-see position on “default”. The source explains that waiting, when will declare a default for some other country, and they are already under cover, too,” — said “Legitimate.”

At the same time, economists and experts warned the Ukraine from defaulting, because he will not save, and will finish the Ukrainian economy.

“To prevent the bankruptcy of the country is possible, if difficult period to maximize the funds with the IMF and to attract low cost funding from the EU, the world Bank, as well as opportunities to negotiate new loan guarantees from the United States,” — said in a joint statement, economists and research centers, signed, edition “Economic truth”, Centre for economic strategy, the head of the analytical Department of the IC Concorde Capital Oleksandr Parashchiy, and others.

The statement stresses that the Declaration of default the debt isn’t going away — the debtor can not just take himself to “forgive” debts.

“Declaring a default, he just recognizes that it is not able to pay, but then still forced to negotiate with creditors for postponement or partial cancellation of the debt,” explain the economists.

In addition, you cannot declare a default on all external obligations. In 2020, Ukraine had to repay $ 3.8 billion of external debt. Of this amount, $ 1.3 billion is owed to private borrowers — failure to pay them will have political consequences.

“But the other debts obligations to official creditors, including $ 1 billion of obligations under the guarantee of the U.S. government.

If you simply refuse to pay, relations with all international partners will be destroyed, and Ukraine will be in international isolation — in the context of the spread of coronavirus, the war in the East and the global economic crisis.

Against Ukraine even unable to impose sanctions. Savings of $ 1.3 billion in 2020 when the reserves of the NBU 26 billion dollars (early March) this is just not worth it”, — said in a statement.

Additionally, the default “not free money” in the budget for other purposes.

“The planned budget deficit for 2020 is 96 billion UAH. That’s how much the budget is not enough to make planned expenditures. A large part of the deficit is planned to be covered by raising new debt.

Given the high risk of 12 billion UAH from privatization, they could also be replaced by the borrowing, if to maintain access to borrowing. However, in the event of a default this money would not where to get” — noted economists and experts.

“Theoretically, if Ukraine refuses to pay interest on all foreign debts (which is impossible), the budget will still be a “hole” in the amount of 50 billion UAH. Theoretically, if Ukraine refuses to repay all external debts (which is impossible) it would still be necessary to extinguish domestic debt in the amount of 110 billion UAH.

Such a theoretical rejection would have completely eliminated the possibility of any external funding, therefore the government would have to find 160 billion on the domestic market,” the statement reads.

It is emphasized that if the government defaulted, no private Bank or Fund will not give him credit. The only source of funding remains a huge issue of the hryvnia, the National Bank, which will lead to runaway inflation and devaluation, which will cause widespread discontent among the population.

In a joint statement, the government urged to resume cooperation with the IMF and all the possible programme of work with official international creditors.

“To attract these funds it will be impossible if Ukraine will default. In the case of default of Ukraine will remain one-on-one with a crisis — the possible loss from such situation it is difficult to overestimate,” warn economists and experts. Source

Associated with the pandemic coronavirus crisis could leave without work from 170 thousand to 500 thousand Ukrainians.This forecast on his page on Facebook gave the former Minister of economic development, trade and agriculture Tymofiy mylovanov, citing the experience of China, where this month the unemployment rose by 1%.

“In China, unemployment increased over the month by 1% to 6.2%. In Ukraine unemployment around 8.6%, which is about 1.5 million people. If unemployment increases as well as in China by 1%, this would mean that 170 thousand people will lose their jobs. But data from China — this is the official statistics,” said Milovanov.

And noticed that these figures demonstrate only the official statistics and do not account for about 20% of Ukrainians who are employed informally.

According to him, this category of Ukrainians is the least protected from layoffs during the crisis. Especially we are talking about those Ukrainians who are informally employed in trade, repairs, catering, transport. And those in the country about 700 thousand According to him, the most vulnerable to job losses during the crisis are informal workers.

“The assumption that the work will lose from a quarter to half of informal workers in the most vulnerable sectors, can be taken as a reasonable and conservative. In such a scenario, it will be from 175 to 350 thousand people,” — said the former Minister.

At the same time, this figure could be even higher if they dismiss those who work in other industries. Source

Ukraine has made a prediction about the consequences for the country from the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19, which has hosted on its territory.

It is expected that infection of coronavirus picks up 9, 4 million citizens of Ukraine, with can die 600 thousand people.

This broadcast NewsOne said honored doctor of Ukraine the chief of Gospodarevskaya in Kiev Oleg Ruban, based on the data of the Institute of epidemiology and infectious diseases of the National Academy of medical Sciences of Ukraine.

Just this season can recover from 9.4 million Ukrainians. Particularly at risk senior citizens age 60+. Given the fact that they are bunches of comorbidities and difficult to tolerate infection with a coronavirus, the death rate will be the most intensely observed in this age group. All can be killed 600 thousand people, from them 30 thousand – in Kiev, said Ruban. He added that the data the predicted number of infections transmitted to the government of Ukraine.

The Ministry of health of the country by the evening of 19 March confirmed 21 cases of coronavirus in Ukraine. Three of the infected died. On the eve of the Ministry of health reported that during the Wednesday, March 18, at the Virology reference laboratory of the public health Center received 79 reports of suspected coronavirus infection, because of which in Ukraine has imposed a quarantine. Source

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Ukraine is waiting for a propitious occasion for the defaulting | half a million Ukrainians may lose their jobs because of the coronavirus

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